How much of our coastline will be lost to erosion?

Researchers in Scotland have mapped the likely extent of coastal erosion in Scotland, under different climate change scenarios.  The use of ArcGIS helped the team to identify that assets with a value of £1.2 billion will be at risk by 2050, if action isn’t taken to stem rising sea levels induced by climate change.

Coastal erosion is occurring more quickly and across more of Scotland’s coastline than previously recorded, putting homes, businesses, infrastructure and natural habitats at risk.  A ground-breaking and award-winning research project called Dynamic Coast has been carried out to investigate historic erosion and anticipate how climate change might accelerate erosion in the future.  This Scottish Government initiative was funded via Scotland’s Centre of Expertise for Waters (CREW), together with NatureScot and the St Andrews Links Trust. The research was carried out by the University of Glasgow.

The research team used Esri’s ArcGIS technology to analyse geo-rectified historical maps from the 1890s and 1970s, alongside modern maps and LiDAR.  It then modelled future changes in the coastline, taking into account potential different sea level rises under different climate change scenarios.  By comparing the likely locations of erosion over time with the locations of existing coastal structures, the team identified assets with a value of £1.2 billion that are potentially at risk by 2050 if the world’s current level of emissions continues along a high emissions pathway.  The study also revealed that Scotland can avoid £400 million in damage to coastal assets if emissions are cut quickly to a low emissions pathway.

“ArcGIS allows powerful analysis on coastal change to be undertaken and shared with the public, so that Scotland’s businesses and communities can become more sea level wise and resilient to climate change.”

Dr Alistair Rennie, Dynamic Coast Project Manager, NatureScot.

Under all of the sea level scenarios modelled using ArcGIS, the rate and extent of erosion is set to increase above today’s levels, which highlights the need for government bodies, businesses and communities to take urgent action to improve their resilience to coastal erosion.  People who live, work and invest in coastal areas can now access the interactive maps and reports on DynamicCoast.com to help them consider short-term resilience measures and develop flexible long-term adaptation strategies.  As the data is displayed on simple-to-use interactive maps via ArcGIS Online, everyone can more easily understand the implications of climate change to their coastline, plan ahead and adapt to reduce their exposure to risk.  

“Planning space needs to be found for a future coast, and its assets, located landward of present. Allowing existing and new development on eroding coasts locks us into costly and risky futures. ArcGIS helps identify which coastal land-use options are sustainable.”

Prof Jim Hansom, Dynamic Coast research lead, University of Glasgow.

 To read more inspiring stories of how different organisations and government are using GIS to challenge climate change and make a difference, click here.